Switch crushes expectation, outsells WiiU in under 10 months

[Julius Seeker]

Nintendo posts some impressive numbers that are shocking even the most optimistic analysts.
* Switch is currently the fastest selling console in history (outpacing the Wii, DS, PS2, and PS4 aligned).
* Switch has already outsold the 5+ year lifetime sales of the Wii U.
* Zelda: Breath of the Wild is just shy of becoming the highest selling Zelda in history.
* Super Mario Odyssey in 2 months is now nearly the highest selling 3D Mario in history (It's already 80% of the sales of Galaxy and 64)
* Xenoblade Chronicles 2 in less than 1 month became the highest selling Xenoblade game in history.
* Sleeper hit to hit, Splatoon 2 (in 5 months) has surpassed the nearly 5M sales of the sleeper hit Splatoon 1.
* Nintendo doubles analyst quarterly profit expectations, and posts the highest profits since Q3 2009 - also their 4th highest in company history.


Highlights of the Investor meeting:

* Wii U (lifetime) sits at 13.56M units
* Switch has sold 14.86M units
* Super Mario Odyssey sold 9.07M units
* Breath of the Wild sold 6.7M units on Switch and an additional 1.5M on Wii U (8.2M total)
* Super Mario Kart 8 Deluxe sold 7.33M units on Switch
* Splatoon 2 sold 4.91M
* ARMs sold 1.61M
* Xenoblade Chronicles 2 sold 1.06M units
* SNES Classic surpasses 4 million units
* Nintendo doubles quarterly profit expectations at $1.07B.
* Nintendo bumps fiscal year total forecast up several million to 17.76M units.


Another interesting note is that this year is the first year since 2008 that the dedicated videogame industry has increased numbers year over year. 2017 ends a decade of decline. The outlook for 2018 is more growth.

[ManaMan]

I still haven’t bought one. I’m still playing Zelda on my Wii U. What’s the killer app?

[Julius Seeker]

Breath of the Wild, certainly. At launch, it single-handedly drove millions of sales. Millions HAD to have that game. People were buying it before they were able to get their hands on a Switch.

Mario Odyssey is also a major system seller as well, the console sold millions of units this December, and Odyssey was the main game that was purchased with it.

Since launch the library has increased to over 300 games, that will also contribute to sales to a certain degree. Although most of the library I see as something for existing owners to dive into after purchase, rather than an actual sales-driving factor (even if some of the games are really good).

In a general sense, it's the hybrid nature combined with the high software support that's the biggest attraction. You can sit down and play the console on TV with a pro-controller or dual joy cons, or you can pick it up and play it like a portable - and that includes the expanded local multiplayer potential (home console only is generally limited to 4 players and online).

Visibility is a major factor too. With the Wii there were literal party games (as in games that came out at parties) and people saw it - and whether you like it or not, it was a sleek/beautiful console. When you're on a bus, you'll probably see a Switch. In the office at lunch, you'll see a Switch (maybe many of them). And like the Wii before it, it's a sleek/beautiful console.

I have to call out Mario Kart too. Due to the nature of the Switch, 12-player local multiplayer on Mario Kart 8 is as simple of a matter as getting 12 people together with a Switch (not too difficult in an office space). While not the most ideal approach, you can also hand off a Joy Con to people who don't have a Switch yet.

I think those factors are why it's selling so well.

[Eric]

I still haven’t bought one. I’m still playing Zelda on my Wii U. What’s the killer app?

Mario and Zelda are the system sellers, the attach rate on those 2 games is bonkers.

[Shellie]

We got a Switch for Christmas. The 8 year old already beat Mario Odyssey on his own a few weeks ago. Not sure if I'm a bad parent or an awesome one.

[Eric]

We got a Switch for Christmas. The 8 year old already beat Mario Odyssey on his own a few weeks ago. Not sure if I'm a bad parent or an awesome one.

Only if you haven't beaten it yourself! :^)

[Oracle]

WTB next killer app. I want to play my switch, but nothing to play!

Guess I'll have to do NG+ in Xenoblade for the time being.

[Julius Seeker]

Investor report highlights from Switch's first full year on the market:

* Total fiscal year revenue hit $9.656 billion USD - over 115% increase over last year (4.48 billion USD FY2017).
* Nintendo hit $1.623 billion USD in operating income for the fiscal year - a more than 500% increase.
* Shuntaro Furukawa replaces Tatsumi Kimishima as President of Nintendo.

Sales highlights (IMO):
* Switch: 17.79 million - 12 month sales record - Wii sold 15.5 year 1, and PS4 sold 13.5 (Wii and PS4 will beat it by 13 and 14 months respectively, though considering that will account for two holiday seasons; but Switch will likely surpass both of them on a more permanent basis before year's end.)
* Mario Odyssey: 10.41 million - Super Mario Galaxy sold 12.76M lifetime, Super Mario 64 sold 11 M lifetime - It's basically surpassed 64 by now since this report is based on sales numbers already 6 weeks out of date.
* Mario Kart 8: 9.22 million (8.5M on Wii U, total of 17.7M) - making MK8 the 5th for single platform -MK64 sold 10M, MK7 sold 17M - third best selling in the franchise overall, only behind MKDS at 24M, and MK Wii at 37M.
* Zelda BOTW: 8.48 million (1.33M on Wii U, total of 9.7M) - well ahead of the previous record, Ocarina of Time on N64, which sold 7.6 million. The total is 9.7M including Wii U sales making it the highest selling Zelda game in history by a considerable amount.
* Splatoon 2: 6.02 million - beat the original sleeper hit, which sold 4.93M.
* Xenoblade Chronicles 2: 1.31 m - Now #2 in the franchise, ahead of Xenogears sales of 1.19M, but behind Xenosaga Episode 1's 1.74M sales.
* Stardew Valley: 1 million - highest selling digital-only third party game. The game launched on Switch in the Fall. Total sales across Steam and other platforms is 3.5 million. Nintendo highlighted successful ports of old games to show the appeal of playing (even) old games on the Switch’s unique hybrid hardware.

We're not quite seeing Wii/DS Golden age numbers from 2008 to 2011, but Nintendo has exceeded the 2007 numbers, which would be the best comparison to this time period - as during that time Nintendo was in its first year of Wii, and third year of DS.