Well, 139.36 million as of December 31st, but given they're expecting about 1.73m this quarter, it's likely passed the 140 million by now. Nintendo upped their fiscal forecast from 15 million to 15.5 million for the year. Switch sales for years now have steadily decreased about 18% year over year from their peak back in 2020, which is quite a shallow downward curve when compared to most other video game consoles (aside from the freak shows that were Gameboy and NES, thanks to their staggered releases and late coming killer applications like Pokemon).
The DS and PS5 have sold 154 million and 158 million respectively. Given the current curve, the Switch should pass both these consoles in about 1.5 to 2 years.
There are a few uncertainties (that will probably occur) to consider that could alter the route. The first will probably negatively impact the Switch sales curve, but the other three would positively impact it.
1. Switch 2 is expected to be announced and released this year, as early as this summer. This could drastically increase the decline of the Switch 1 sales.
2. Switch has yet to see a price drop. This is still a major card that Nintendo has yet to play as price drops are associated with increases in sales, especially for popular consoles. Price drops helped consoles like NES, GBA, 3DS, and PS2 sell well beyond the release of their successors. The reason why other Nintendo home consoles have often not seen much in the way of sales beyond the end of the generation is because they either died before the end of the generation (as was the case with the N64, Gamecube, and Wii U), or Nintendo cut off support, features, marketing, and production (DS, Wii, SNES); all things unlikely to happen with the Switch because...
3. Switch 1 probably won't be abandoned as a console, but used as an entry level machine, maintaining the EShop platform and seeing the previous generation fully integrated as a foundation for the next generation - not just simple backward compatibility like the Wii mode on Wii U, or the cartridge slot along in the DS for older handheld games. Switch 2 will probably also maintain the same game card slot. Given this, it means people who want to replace old Switch hardware, split off of a family console with their own Switch, or people who have yet to buy a Switch, are all potential customers since the majority of customers don't buy consoles in their first 2 years.
4. With five first party games slated for 2024 (in an era where Nintendo usually announces no more than 6 months out), Nintendo still seems to be supporting the Switch, and this support will likely continue longer and include cross generation games. Paper Mario game, Donkey Kong, Princess Peach, Luigi's Mansion, and Another Code; and likely another 5-8 games unannounced, since Nintendo tends to hold their announcements close to the chest these days.
When compared to the Wii:
1. The Wii U launched in November 2012.
2. The Wii received its first and biggest price drop in 2009, and this was followed by the consoles biggest quarterly sales (the 2009 Christmas season).
3. The Wii also began ramping down services and shows in 2011 through to March 2012 (when shows like Nintendo Week and various channels were cancelled).
4. Skyward Sword in 2011 was Wii's last real first party release, as Nintendo only released a Kirby collection and Mario Party 9 in 2012 for the Wii. Mario Party 9 released March 2nd 2012, around 8 months before the Wii U came out, and also about the same time the much diminished Nintendo Week had its last episode.
Effectively, Nintendo shut the Wii down between December 2011 and March 2012, but the ramp down in virtual console releases and such began even earlier than that, there is no ramp down on Switch so far.
Despite the Wii's effective end between 8-12 months before the Wii U's release (I say 8 months, because it was ab , the Wii still managed to sell over 5 million units after the Wii U released. The Wii was also a notoriously front heavy console in terms of sales, but in 2012, it was beginning its seventh year on the market. If the Switch 2 released tomorrow, the Switch still only needs to sell less than 4X what the Wii sold after the Wii U release to beat the PS2.
Other highlights:
* Switch sold 206 million retail level software titles, increasing the total to 1.2 billion software sales as of December 31st 2023.
* Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has surpassed 60 million units.
* Animal Crossing: New Horizons hit 45 million.
* Nine games in total have sold over 20 million.
* The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom combined have sold 52 million units on Switch.
The DS and PS5 have sold 154 million and 158 million respectively. Given the current curve, the Switch should pass both these consoles in about 1.5 to 2 years.
There are a few uncertainties (that will probably occur) to consider that could alter the route. The first will probably negatively impact the Switch sales curve, but the other three would positively impact it.
1. Switch 2 is expected to be announced and released this year, as early as this summer. This could drastically increase the decline of the Switch 1 sales.
2. Switch has yet to see a price drop. This is still a major card that Nintendo has yet to play as price drops are associated with increases in sales, especially for popular consoles. Price drops helped consoles like NES, GBA, 3DS, and PS2 sell well beyond the release of their successors. The reason why other Nintendo home consoles have often not seen much in the way of sales beyond the end of the generation is because they either died before the end of the generation (as was the case with the N64, Gamecube, and Wii U), or Nintendo cut off support, features, marketing, and production (DS, Wii, SNES); all things unlikely to happen with the Switch because...
3. Switch 1 probably won't be abandoned as a console, but used as an entry level machine, maintaining the EShop platform and seeing the previous generation fully integrated as a foundation for the next generation - not just simple backward compatibility like the Wii mode on Wii U, or the cartridge slot along in the DS for older handheld games. Switch 2 will probably also maintain the same game card slot. Given this, it means people who want to replace old Switch hardware, split off of a family console with their own Switch, or people who have yet to buy a Switch, are all potential customers since the majority of customers don't buy consoles in their first 2 years.
4. With five first party games slated for 2024 (in an era where Nintendo usually announces no more than 6 months out), Nintendo still seems to be supporting the Switch, and this support will likely continue longer and include cross generation games. Paper Mario game, Donkey Kong, Princess Peach, Luigi's Mansion, and Another Code; and likely another 5-8 games unannounced, since Nintendo tends to hold their announcements close to the chest these days.
When compared to the Wii:
1. The Wii U launched in November 2012.
2. The Wii received its first and biggest price drop in 2009, and this was followed by the consoles biggest quarterly sales (the 2009 Christmas season).
3. The Wii also began ramping down services and shows in 2011 through to March 2012 (when shows like Nintendo Week and various channels were cancelled).
4. Skyward Sword in 2011 was Wii's last real first party release, as Nintendo only released a Kirby collection and Mario Party 9 in 2012 for the Wii. Mario Party 9 released March 2nd 2012, around 8 months before the Wii U came out, and also about the same time the much diminished Nintendo Week had its last episode.
Effectively, Nintendo shut the Wii down between December 2011 and March 2012, but the ramp down in virtual console releases and such began even earlier than that, there is no ramp down on Switch so far.
Despite the Wii's effective end between 8-12 months before the Wii U's release (I say 8 months, because it was ab , the Wii still managed to sell over 5 million units after the Wii U released. The Wii was also a notoriously front heavy console in terms of sales, but in 2012, it was beginning its seventh year on the market. If the Switch 2 released tomorrow, the Switch still only needs to sell less than 4X what the Wii sold after the Wii U release to beat the PS2.
Other highlights:
* Switch sold 206 million retail level software titles, increasing the total to 1.2 billion software sales as of December 31st 2023.
* Mario Kart 8 Deluxe has surpassed 60 million units.
* Animal Crossing: New Horizons hit 45 million.
* Nine games in total have sold over 20 million.
* The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild and Tears of the Kingdom combined have sold 52 million units on Switch.
