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  • Who is to blame for the economic crisis?

  • Somehow, we still tolerate each other. Eventually this will be the only forum left.
Somehow, we still tolerate each other. Eventually this will be the only forum left.
 #126883  by SineSwiper
 
(I posted this in an email to some friend/family:)

Both Obama and McCain (as well as their running mates) attack each other on how the economic meltdown was caused by the other party. The news stations provide small details here and there, but there is no full picture from ANYBODY on why and how this whole thing went crashing down. So, which bills killed our economy?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm-Leach-Bliley_Act

First, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. The GLBA, enacted in 1999, repealed parts of the Glass-Steagall Act, a post-Depression-Era law designed to promote safeguards after that generation's economic apocolyse. Specifically, the Glass-Steagall Act prohibited a bank from offering investment, commercial banking, and insurance services. This was the critical part that was repealed. This was also a critical safeguard that prevented banks from diving into potentially risky industries, such as mortgage loans. Without that safeguard, we have ended up with the current situation of banks taking on bad mortgage loans, and the banks, who normally take part in daily overnight loans with the rest of the banking world to balance out surplused banks with debted banks, now no longer trust each other to accept interbank loans. The banks in debt end up going bankrupt, as we've seen in the past week.

Who participated in this law? Well, the bill was introduced by three Republicans, Phil Gramm being the most important of the three. Gramm is the top economic advisor of the McCain campaign, and might be a pick for Secretary of the Treasury if McCain was elected. (Though, McCain recently dumped him as an advisor after his "a nation of whiners" gaff. Also, Gramm was almost single-handedly responsible for the Enron loophole.) The Senate passed the bill with a 54-44 vote (mostly Republican, including a Yea from McCain), and the House passed it 343-86 (both from Democrats and Republicans). Some will point out that Bill Clinton signed the bill into law, but as the bill was now veto-proof (over a 2/3rd majority in the House), Clinton couldn't object to it even if he wanted to.

http://engram-backtalk.blogspot.com/200 ... tgage.html

The second part is the rise of subprime loans. Not only do subprime loans give money to people who can't afford to pay it back, they often are very predatory in terms. According to the US Government Accountability Office, several factors contributed to the rise of subprime loans during the 90's, including "changes in tax law that increased the tax advantages of home equity loans." (Unfortunately, I can't pinpoint the exact tax law here. Could be 1986 or 1996...)

http://www.slate.com/id/2182709/

During the early 2000's, four states tried to create laws to curb predatory lending. (This is also detailed in that GAO report, on page 58.) These passed the states and worked for a few years, but the Treasury Department's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) stepped in and essentially invalidated those laws in 2004. (Bush's administration, mind you. FEMA's Katrina, Dept of the Interior's sexual relations with the oil industry, the Office of Special Plans, the Justice Department's unlawful firing of US attorneys, the Dept of Defense's War on Iraq, the Dept of Homeland Security, and four Press Secretaries paid to lie to your face. Is there any department that isn't tainted by Bush's stink of corruption and incompetence? When do I see a scandal involving the Dept of Agriculture?)

-----

So, there it is in a nutshell. Loans to people who can't afford it created a massive economic debt, and deregulation from Congress spread the damage outside of the home loan sector. Some states tried to prevent some of the damage, but the current administration stopped that cold.

Capitalism is nice and all, but the macro-organism that is the private sector is an instinctual creature. It feeds off of greed because it is the nature of its evolution. You cannot blame corporations as a whole for being greedy no more than you can blame a snake for trying to choke your neck. As much as right-wingers want to create a completely "free" market and remove as much regulation as possible, a totally "free" market is total anarchy. The abuse of monopolies are against the law, a government regulation, but you don't want to remove that safeguard. The police, post office, fire departments, etc. are all funded by the government, but you certainly don't want to turn that over to the private sector. So, putting some shackles on the bloodthirsty beast isn't such a bad idea, and the American public shouldn't be so mindless with the "regulation BAD, taxes BAD, money GOOD" mantra.

At the same time, subprime loans were, and still are, a horrible idea. NINJA loans (No Income, No Job, no Assets) are idiotic. Interest-only loans are f--king stupid. Reverse mortgages are rip-offs to the elderly. Debt consolidation are quick fixes that turn into long-term problems (like killing your credit and home equity). When it comes down to it, if a person can't afford a house, they shouldn't be shopping for a house! There are plenty of apartments and rental houses to live in, so owning a house isn't a requirement to live. As much as left-wingers want to give the poor the opportunity to do everything that the other classes can do, sometimes it's just not a good idea, and sometimes they don't really deserve any government help, anyway. Certain mistakes are painful for a reason.

Weigh this against the candidates as you like, but remember that nothing this complex can be reduced to a sound byte, and problems like this are usually the fault of both parties, anyway. Which party should carry the most blame, and which candidate is going to fix this mess, is up to you to decide.

 #126906  by Don
 
Oil went up by $25 a barrel today...

 #126909  by Imakeholesinu
 
Flip wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... KSoiNbnQY0

"How the Democrats Created the Financial Crisis: Kevin Hassett"
How the republicans will keep exploiting the Crisis: John McCain.

 #126916  by SineSwiper
 
Flip wrote:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... KSoiNbnQY0

"How the Democrats Created the Financial Crisis: Kevin Hassett"
Did you bother reading the post, or did you think "Oooo, an economic thread. I can blindly endorse my political point-of-view by taking a biased article and completely ignoring the main point of Sine's post." Because remember:

If somebody fucks up from the other side, they are the devil and they should die.
If somebody fucks up from your side, well, they are only human and they make mistakes.

You people are so fucking predictable.

 #126929  by Flip
 
Oh, i read it and just thought i would post an opposing view point, your tone in the Gramm section was anti-republican. I agree with you on the lending, which is what my article is about.

 #126987  by SineSwiper
 
Well, to be fair, Gramm is a fucking asshole. I could care less if he's a Democrat or Republican.

Also, to dissect this "news" article you posted, since more than one person has sent it to me:

First of all, Senate Bill 190 (109th Congress) was never voted on. Period. There is no roll call, and there is no record of the bill ever passing or failing anything. It simply expired because the issue got pushed back and the 109th Congress never voted on it. It was re-introduced in 2007 and oddly enough, McCain never co-sponsored it.

Second, even if it was voted on (which it wasn't), it was a Republican-majority 109th Congress, so some Republicans would have to disapprove of the bill to vote it down.

Third, the bill was/is in favor of moving the regulatory committee from outside the government to an privatized agency. That would be zero federal oversight altogether. Oh, and this little gem from the Bill Summary itself: "Excludes the Federal Home Loan Banks from certain securities reporting requirements."

Fourth, strangely absent from the Mae/Mac contribution list is McCain's contributions from top Mae/Mac lobbyists, which totals $169K. I wonder why that is? Oh yeah, I guess that's because the article has a clearly right-winged slant, and it's totally inaccurate garbage.

 #127005  by Julius Seeker
 
SineSwiper wrote:Who is to blame for the economic crisis?
Ishamael.

 #127118  by SineSwiper
 
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jaW ... ugh-BgF8DQ

It's looking like Congress was making real progress on both sides...

...until McCain dropped in and screwed up the whole process.

EDIT: A timeline:

Early 9/25 AM: Republicans and Democrats in Congress state that they are near a deal on bailout
Later 9/25 AM: Repblicans and Democrats in Congress state a deal has been reached on the bailout
Early 9/25 afternoon: McCain finally shows up in Washington and meets with Congressional Republicans
Late 9/25 afternoon: Bush meets with bipartisan Congressional leadership, Obama, and McCain
Early 9/25 evening: Congressional Republicans state there is no way the bailout passes
Late 9/25 evening: McCain states that since the bailout hasn't passed, he's still considering not showing up to debate
Now: We all learn that the deal-breaker for the GOP was a capital gains tax cut and more deregulation.

 #127130  by Zeus
 
SineSwiper wrote:http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jaW ... ugh-BgF8DQ

It's looking like Congress was making real progress on both sides...

...until McCain dropped in and screwed up the whole process.

EDIT: A timeline:

Early 9/25 AM: Republicans and Democrats in Congress state that they are near a deal on bailout
Later 9/25 AM: Repblicans and Democrats in Congress state a deal has been reached on the bailout
Early 9/25 afternoon: McCain finally shows up in Washington and meets with Congressional Republicans
Late 9/25 afternoon: Bush meets with bipartisan Congressional leadership, Obama, and McCain
Early 9/25 evening: Congressional Republicans state there is no way the bailout passes
Late 9/25 evening: McCain states that since the bailout hasn't passed, he's still considering not showing up to debate
Now: We all learn that the deal-breaker for the GOP was a capital gains tax cut and more deregulation.
At least now we know why he bailed on Letterman :-)

 #127131  by Flip
 
Whats more concerning is that IF the first pres debate is pushed back, they may have to also push back or CANCEL the VP debate......... is this McCain's goal all along? Fuck, i hate politicians.

McCain's whole 'We need to cancel the debate to focus on the economic crisis.' is so full of shit already that i cant believe the VP debate may also be affected. I'm disgusted by anyone who believes McCain's BS on this topic. How in the world is he going to solve this crisis alone? Get on with who will fix this in the future, for crying out loud. Anyone proud of McCain for this move is a total fucking moron.

 #127137  by Don
 
I think you underestimate how long it takes to get a deal that's said to be the biggest economic thing since the Great Depression. From what I read the Treasury is asking for a lot of power to do whatever he wants and the Congress don't really like that.

 #127171  by SineSwiper
 
Don wrote:I think you underestimate how long it takes to get a deal that's said to be the biggest economic thing since the Great Depression. From what I read the Treasury is asking for a lot of power to do whatever he wants and the Congress don't really like that.
Congress had their chance. They didn't fix it. Now, they are forced to give this kind of power to get things moving along in a short amount of time.
Flip wrote:McCain's whole 'We need to cancel the debate to focus on the economic crisis.' is so full of shit already that i cant believe the VP debate may also be affected. I'm disgusted by anyone who believes McCain's BS on this topic. How in the world is he going to solve this crisis alone? Get on with who will fix this in the future, for crying out loud. Anyone proud of McCain for this move is a total fucking moron.
Heh, I take it you're voting for Obama now?

I think McCain's afraid that he won't have enough time to prepare. Obama is pretty good at this sort of thing, so I predict a knockout at the debates tonight.

 #127173  by Don
 
The financial responsibilty of the nation goes under the Fed and the Treasury, not the Congress. It's not the Congress that lowered the prime rate to 1% that caused the housing bubble. If you mean there are some long reaching laws they could've passed a long time ago, that was a very long time ago. The Fed screwed up and now they're asking for all these money to bail them out, and it's up to the Congress to figure out if this makes sense.

The popular opinion is overwhelmingly against the bailout. I don't believe they've narrowed down the exact terms yet but the initial version would've given $700 billion with no liability and no oversight that can be used to buy anything they want. They are also planning on buying the worthless assets out there in some future value as opposed to the current firesale price, which means they're going to pay way more than what the assets are worth.

I don't know why you blame a guy allegedly screwing up a deal that was overwhelmingly not favored by the tax payer. I think they say the calls they received on this issue was like 90 to 1 against bailout. Now, whether McCain actually did anything useful by going there, I have no idea. I'm guessing he didn't do much besides just showing up, and that the bailout wasn't going to be done as fast as Bush said it would have been to begin with. It sounds pretty certain that had an agreement been reached, it'd have been very bad for the taxpayers so I don't know why people are complaining about that.

 #127179  by SineSwiper
 
The Iraq war is bad for taxpayers. This is a drop in the bucket compared to that. Also, deregulation played a MAJOR part in fucking this economy up, and you can't blame the feds on that.

Zeus, what's your take on it?

 #127180  by Don
 
It's not like if they didn't spend X trillion dollar on the Iraqi war it'd make sense to feed the money into a bottomless pit that is the housing bubble. You'd just get a bigger bubble.

The deregulation stuff I can agree with. Obviously Congress must have screwed up somewhere to get an environment responsible for this mess, but that was a long time ago and any short term solution is supposed to be handled on the Fed side, which is why they exist.

At any rate I still haven't heard of anything concrete on the exact terms of the bailout plan. It's really impossible to say whether it being delayed is a good thing without knowing what exactly is argued over.

 #127184  by Flip
 
SineSwiper wrote:
Flip wrote:McCain's whole 'We need to cancel the debate to focus on the economic crisis.' is so full of shit already that i cant believe the VP debate may also be affected. I'm disgusted by anyone who believes McCain's BS on this topic. How in the world is he going to solve this crisis alone? Get on with who will fix this in the future, for crying out loud. Anyone proud of McCain for this move is a total fucking moron.
Heh, I take it you're voting for Obama now?

I think McCain's afraid that he won't have enough time to prepare. Obama is pretty good at this sort of thing, so I predict a knockout at the debates tonight.
Ive always been a middle... right now i'm probably voting for Bob Barr.

 #127185  by Zeus
 
SineSwiper wrote:The Iraq war is bad for taxpayers. This is a drop in the bucket compared to that. Also, deregulation played a MAJOR part in fucking this economy up, and you can't blame the feds on that.

Zeus, what's your take on it?
Well, I think the issue all started back in 2000/2001 before even 9/11 occurred. After about 9 years of very strong economic growth post Iraq War 1 (which, in turn, gave Clinton the popularity he never deserved), it was time for a slowdown. It was actually a natural time for a recession on some level. If you look back the economy started to slow down right around the time Bush took office. Politicians are always short-sighted particularly in their first terms as president so they used the post-9/11 crisis to do what has worked so many times in the past (including Iraq 1): use a war to artificially inflate the economy.

Problem is that's generally a short-term solution. Gov't injects money into the economy to stimulate it hoping for the trickle down effects. You can't keep injecting without finding ways to keep that money in the country to keep the economy going without the injections. But they also did a few things that I know about (sorry, not THAT into US economics) at the same time:

- Devaluation of the US dollar: this wasn't strictly a reaction to the struggling economy, it was actually a monetary policy instilled by the Bush administration with the intent of bringing back jobs to the homeland. Make it cheaper to built in the country instead of in China or India by lowering the US dollar and you generate some in-country jobs.

- Deregulation: as you mentioned, they changed the regulatory environment in order to hopefully stimulate the economy as well. Having more people with more mortgages supported by the increase in jobs being brought back with the devaluation of the US dollar seemed to be a big part of their plan

- Tax breaks for the companies: correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't they offer big tax breaks to a lot of companies to bring their operations back the work to the US? This would go along with the devaluation to stimulate the economy

- Iraq War: it's no secret that there are a lot of US companies that have benefited greatly from the Iraqi war, from the arms makers to the companies that got the construction contracts. There SHOULD be some trickle down effects from that as well considering it's US companies that are making the coin by taking it out of a foreign country

The problem is there was no incentive and no assurances that the monies being given to these companies from everything aside from deregulation was going to actually be passed along to the people. To keep an economy healthy you have to ensure that the people have enough money to spend to keep your consuming society going. America is a society which consumes a lot. Not as much as Japan but still it's a consumer society. I think as we've seen over the last few years, any of the companies which have benefited from these policies haven't passed the coin along to the people. It was more of the old boys club of politicians giving handouts to their business buddies. If you don't give the people enough coin to be spenders it don't go back into the economy. If there's no money being injected into the economy, it becomes unhealthy.

Couple that with deregulation, particularly in the mortgage business, and you have a real crisis. Government regulation exists to protect the people, often from themselves. You get rid of that protection and you end up with what we have now, a shitload of people who were able to and often coerced/convinced to take on debt they really couldn't afford. Once the artificial inflation of the economy by the governmental injections started to dwindle these over-indebted people really started to feel the heat. With nothing left to prop up the economy, you end up with a big shitpile in your hands like you have now.

Basically, it all boils down to the delay of the business cycle through economic and foreign policies by the government. You can't break the business cycle you can only delay it and manage it. Your government just delayed it with no real management due to their shortsightedness.

There's a reason our economy ain't in the dire straits like yours. We managed it.

 #127186  by Zeus
 
Flip wrote:
SineSwiper wrote:
Flip wrote:McCain's whole 'We need to cancel the debate to focus on the economic crisis.' is so full of shit already that i cant believe the VP debate may also be affected. I'm disgusted by anyone who believes McCain's BS on this topic. How in the world is he going to solve this crisis alone? Get on with who will fix this in the future, for crying out loud. Anyone proud of McCain for this move is a total fucking moron.
Heh, I take it you're voting for Obama now?

I think McCain's afraid that he won't have enough time to prepare. Obama is pretty good at this sort of thing, so I predict a knockout at the debates tonight.
Ive always been a middle... right now i'm probably voting for Bob Barr.
Honestly, I ain't so sold on Obama myself. His entire campaign so far has been "you want a change and I'm different". I ain't so sure he'll do things too differently

 #127189  by RentCavalier
 
But McCain is just looking sad right now. He's not even ON the Economic board or whatever it is. He really wouldn't be doing much even if he DID go meet in congress, and if what you are saying is true, he's just making a mess of things to get out of the debate...or for publicity. Either way is good for me--I'm wanting Obama to win--though I'm usually a Conservative, frankly, the Republicans are embarassing nowadays, and seem to have lost track of what it was they stood for in the first place.

 #127194  by bovine
 
RentCavalier wrote:I'm usually a Conservative, [and] frankly the Republicans are embarassing nowadays, and seem to have lost track of what it was they stood for in the first place.
They stand for giving money to rich people in hopes that one day they'll come to you looking for a good time and pay you for your services. That way everyone gets money! Hooray! Capitalism!

 #127197  by RentCavalier
 
Psh. I want smaller government, more state's rights. I'm becoming more Libertarian everyday.

 #127200  by Lox
 
SineSwiper wrote:I think McCain's afraid that he won't have enough time to prepare. Obama is pretty good at this sort of thing, so I predict a knockout at the debates tonight.
You must be seeing a different Obama than me cuz he has yet to impress me when he has to think fast on his feet. It's always a bunch of "let me tell you" statements wrapped around stumbling. But of course you can't possibly be in favor of anyone except Obama so you'll see it how you want as you tend to do.

I honestly don't want McCain or Obama as President, so I think we're screwed either way. This bailout is the worst solution they could have come up with. And the majority of American's are against it so I fully expect them both to support it because it's all a show anyway.

If you can't tell, I can't stand politicians. :)

 #127202  by SineSwiper
 
The bailout is unavoidable. Nobody likes it at all, but the alternative right now is certain death for the economy.

I was impressed that McCain was able to defend himself as much as he did, but overall, I got tired of the excuses that he tries to make for himself. He has been a part of the problem for a while, and makes excuses for the mistakes he's made. Reaganomics is a failed and stupid idea, and every Republican since Reagan has made it a point to promote that fucked up notion that money somehow "trickles down" to the lower classes when you give stinking piles of money to the rich.

I don't debate that I'm an Obama supporter, but you're traditionally a conservative, anyway. There are a few things that I don't agree with from Obama (gun control, for example), but I do not like McCain's stance on just about everything, and his campaign has been dripping with deceit.

On a related note, I found this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8__aXxXPVc

 #127204  by Zeus
 
Trickle down DOES work......if it's regulated. That's the real problem

 #127217  by SineSwiper
 
Give me a case where trickle down works.

 #127220  by RentCavalier
 
SineSwiper wrote:Give me a case where trickle down works.
Well, if you pull your pants up too quickly, and you weren't exactly quite done, it sort of...

...wait, are we talking about the same thing?

 #127222  by Lox
 
Yeah, I'm a conservative, and I don't like either candidate so I'm not sure what that makes me this election. :) Sane, maybe? heh

 #127224  by bovine
 
Zeus wrote:Trickle down DOES work......if it's regulated. That's the real problem
You'd think that a democratic government that was designed to be by the people and for the people, would instead give the money back to the people. This works well in the case of low regulation market capitalism as well. Since the people have money, they can spend it on the goods and services that they desire. This money will then trickle up into the hands of the business owners and then in turn get spent on goods and come back to the people. I don't understand how people think it works this other way..... the "trickle down" way. Trickle that shit up, not down.

 #127225  by Andrew, Killer Bee
 
I would just like to say that the right having co-opted the term "conservative" is bullshit. Bush has been the most radical president in modern history, and I've read nothing of McCain that would indicate that he's any more conservative — as the term should fucking mean! — than Bush.

 #127236  by Zeus
 
bovine wrote:
Zeus wrote:Trickle down DOES work......if it's regulated. That's the real problem
You'd think that a democratic government that was designed to be by the people and for the people, would instead give the money back to the people. This works well in the case of low regulation market capitalism as well. Since the people have money, they can spend it on the goods and services that they desire. This money will then trickle up into the hands of the business owners and then in turn get spent on goods and come back to the people. I don't understand how people think it works this other way..... the "trickle down" way. Trickle that shit up, not down.
There's no guarantee that the money would get spent by the people and it's tougher to regulate than the businesses. If people are in dire straits they will tend to hold on to any additional coin they have (or spend it on black market goods; you will actually be supporting the black market if you just give money). That's actually what causes economic slowdowns to begin with. So giving the coin to the people directly won't work.

Why do you think they give food stamps instead of money?
Last edited by Zeus on Sun Sep 28, 2008 10:22 am, edited 1 time in total.

 #127237  by Zeus
 
SineSwiper wrote:Give me a case where trickle down works.
Real or theoretical? Real would require a bit of research as I don't really follow specific cases too closely.

 #127243  by SineSwiper
 
Zeus wrote:There's no guarantee that the money would get spent by the people and it's tougher to regulate than the businesses. If people are in dire straits they will tend to hold on to any additional coin they have (or spend it on black market goods; you will actually be supporting the black market if you just give money). That's actually what causes economic slowdowns to begin with. So giving the coin to the people directly won't work.
No guarantee? What gave you that idea? What did people do with their "stimulus" checks? Either they spend it on material goods (90% of them), or put it towards their loan/CC debt, or put it into the stock market (rare). All three of those contribute to businesses. Unless they are squirreling away their cash under the mattress, they are contributing to businesses. There is no choice: people HAVE TO interact with businesses to do something with their cash. (Your "hookers and blow" idea is going to be a really rare scenario.)

With the trickle down method, it goes to the "businesses", which then goes to the CEOs and other ultra-rich (Job creation? Ha!), which then goes to the stock market to give to other businesses. The level of money that goes to the lower classes is very indirect and diffused. Maybe jobs get created, but only from the businesses that are already on the stock market and doing well. It's the rich investing or buying with the rich businesses. Ultimately, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Don't believe me? Just look at the class separation in the past 30 years.

 #127264  by Zeus
 
SineSwiper wrote:
Zeus wrote:There's no guarantee that the money would get spent by the people and it's tougher to regulate than the businesses. If people are in dire straits they will tend to hold on to any additional coin they have (or spend it on black market goods; you will actually be supporting the black market if you just give money). That's actually what causes economic slowdowns to begin with. So giving the coin to the people directly won't work.
No guarantee? What gave you that idea? What did people do with their "stimulus" checks? Either they spend it on material goods (90% of them), or put it towards their loan/CC debt, or put it into the stock market (rare). All three of those contribute to businesses. Unless they are squirreling away their cash under the mattress, they are contributing to businesses. There is no choice: people HAVE TO interact with businesses to do something with their cash. (Your "hookers and blow" idea is going to be a really rare scenario.)

With the trickle down method, it goes to the "businesses", which then goes to the CEOs and other ultra-rich (Job creation? Ha!), which then goes to the stock market to give to other businesses. The level of money that goes to the lower classes is very indirect and diffused. Maybe jobs get created, but only from the businesses that are already on the stock market and doing well. It's the rich investing or buying with the rich businesses. Ultimately, the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

Don't believe me? Just look at the class separation in the past 30 years.
I was talking about why the government shouldn't give the money directly to the people since it won't guarantee any more of it going back into the economy than the current method of giving it to the rich and not whether or not the current execution of the trickle down method works. I was trying to show how that approach would be no better.

Expected behaviour by the public, which is what economics is about, would not guarantee the money going back into the economy. Repaying debt isn't what you want. The only way a bank or financial institution would put it back into the economy is if more people requested debt than repaid it. No guarantee there. It would be a big gamble and not necessarily a good method of injecting money back into the economy which is what you want to do to stimulate the economy. The black market and savings are other example of options the public has if you give them money (as opposed to, say, food stamps) directly of how the money would not go back into the economy.

In theory, the trickle down method works great as long as the government does its job with correct regulation (you don't give the business a handout, that's as bad as giving the public a handout). The fact that it hasn't work is an indication that there's issues with the government or governmental system in place. It's not the method but the implementation that's been the issue and what I've been bitching about for the last 15 years.

 #127265  by Zeus
 
Tessian wrote:Here's the best explanation I've found to explain the whole mess in full detail:

http://www.businesspundit.com/sub-prime/

Leave it to stick figures to do the job...
And the SPVs were supposed to be mitigated in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. That's how Enron hid everything.....

 #127270  by SineSwiper
 
Zeus wrote:I was talking about why the government shouldn't give the money directly to the people since it won't guarantee any more of it going back into the economy than the current method of giving it to the rich and not whether or not the current execution of the trickle down method works. I was trying to show how that approach would be no better.

Expected behaviour by the public, which is what economics is about, would not guarantee the money going back into the economy. Repaying debt isn't what you want. The only way a bank or financial institution would put it back into the economy is if more people requested debt than repaid it. No guarantee there. It would be a big gamble and not necessarily a good method of injecting money back into the economy which is what you want to do to stimulate the economy. The black market and savings are other example of options the public has if you give them money (as opposed to, say, food stamps) directly of how the money would not go back into the economy.
You and me seem to have different definitions of "economy". You seem to think that because money is handed to the bank, it's somehow not a part of the "economy". Can you explain this point? Because banks invest in stocks whenever they have profit to invest. I consider business investment to be part of the economy.

 #127282  by Zeus
 
SineSwiper wrote:
Zeus wrote:I was talking about why the government shouldn't give the money directly to the people since it won't guarantee any more of it going back into the economy than the current method of giving it to the rich and not whether or not the current execution of the trickle down method works. I was trying to show how that approach would be no better.

Expected behaviour by the public, which is what economics is about, would not guarantee the money going back into the economy. Repaying debt isn't what you want. The only way a bank or financial institution would put it back into the economy is if more people requested debt than repaid it. No guarantee there. It would be a big gamble and not necessarily a good method of injecting money back into the economy which is what you want to do to stimulate the economy. The black market and savings are other example of options the public has if you give them money (as opposed to, say, food stamps) directly of how the money would not go back into the economy.
You and me seem to have different definitions of "economy". You seem to think that because money is handed to the bank, it's somehow not a part of the "economy". Can you explain this point? Because banks invest in stocks whenever they have profit to invest. I consider business investment to be part of the economy.
It may be because the systems are different here and there. I'm basing it off of the way the system is here. I dont think it's TOO much different down there but I could be mistaken.

In a lot of ways, the banks act as the agents of the government even though they are separate businesses. They are, basically, insured and regulated by the government (I have an issue with the regulation but that's a different argument). When the federal interest rate is set, what it basically does is set the borrowing rate of the banks (they borrow at 2%, lend at 4.25%, and give savings - GICs, etc. - at 1.75% as an example). What that does is affect the behaviour of the public. Right now, the interest rates are low so people who are in good jobs/positions will have an incentive to borrow. Generally, if you borrow it's to spend (cars, houses, etc.). Buying the car will support the dealerships, manufacturers, supporting industries, etc.; the money has gone back into the economy.

Raise that interest rate and there's more incentive for the people to save their money and less to borrow. That money is sitting with the banks now and not back in the economy. Banks will lend out, sure, but that lending has declined significantly due to the incentives given by the higher interest rates. / basic economic lesson

But what about the banks investing you say? Investment in the stock market doesn't necessarily correlate to consumption within the markets. You buy a stock off of someone who's selling....how's that money going back into the economy unless it's a stock offering by a company (which would in turn use it for business operations, theoretically)? Think of stocks, mutuals funds, etc., like a more risky savings account for people who can afford it or are willing to take the risk for greater reward. It's not putting money back into the economy.

It's the consumption that drives the economy. What's the first thing you hear them talking about when they discuss the economy? It's the inflation rate which is the average price of products (very, very, very basically) in the market, often looking at the housing and auto industries as a litmus test (big purchases will go first when the economy is going down). They look to see how the prices have gone up and down overall and come up with the inflation rate. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative inflation.

So if you want to prop up the economy, you have to make sure the money injected by the government translates into sustainable consumption. That's what the trickle-down effect is SUPPOSED to do but doesn't thanks to lack of regulation. And my argument before is that giving it to the people won't necessarily translate into consumption since some will do things with it that isn't consuming (black market, savings, paying down debt, etc.).

 #127294  by Imakeholesinu
 
IT DIDN'T PASS!

207 to 226

 #127295  by bovine
 
where was mccain? wasn't he supposed to make everything awesome? Letterman's gonna be pissed.

 #127299  by Zeus
 
bovine wrote:where was mccain? wasn't he supposed to make everything awesome? Letterman's gonna be pissed.
Yeah, he rushed back from New York to Washington in a speedy 24 hours due to an economic crisis, stopping only for essentials such as an interview with The Today Show (among others).

So maybe he's just got something better up his sleeves?

 #127300  by Don
 
I was reading that the popular opinion is overwhelming against the bailout so if McCain says he's responsible for not passing this, it'd seem like a good way to get more votes.

 #127301  by Flip
 
The initial stock market reaction is not good...

 #127306  by Zeus
 
Public don't necessarily understand the significance of the bailout. At this point, it's not really an option. If banks fail, people panic. If too many people pull out their money from banks, it's the Great Depression all over again. Don't think that the loss of faith in the banking system can't happen again. Even now, the general public is already worried about the banks. Just 'cause it's been nearly 80 years no one with any kind of power can afford to be pigheaded enough to think it can't happen again.

And as a politician, you're not supposed to ALWAYS do what's popular, you're supposed to do what's in the best interest of the public. That's your fucking job. They're not always the same thing. Any politician that DOESN'T say "look, you may not like it but it's what's necessary to fix this insane mess so live with it" loses points in my books.

 #127313  by Don
 
I think the biggest problem is that the public is overwhelmingly against this. I mean you're hearing talks about how Democrats wanted a few more Republicans to say yea so they won't need to have as many people saying yea, so that they won't look too bad.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/29/magazin ... 2008092918 from the same site explains it pretty well.

 #127323  by SineSwiper
 
Zeus wrote:In a lot of ways, the banks act as the agents of the government even though they are separate businesses. They are, basically, insured and regulated by the government (I have an issue with the regulation but that's a different argument). When the federal interest rate is set, what it basically does is set the borrowing rate of the banks (they borrow at 2%, lend at 4.25%, and give savings - GICs, etc. - at 1.75% as an example). What that does is affect the behaviour of the public. Right now, the interest rates are low so people who are in good jobs/positions will have an incentive to borrow. Generally, if you borrow it's to spend (cars, houses, etc.). Buying the car will support the dealerships, manufacturers, supporting industries, etc.; the money has gone back into the economy.

Raise that interest rate and there's more incentive for the people to save their money and less to borrow. That money is sitting with the banks now and not back in the economy. Banks will lend out, sure, but that lending has declined significantly due to the incentives given by the higher interest rates. / basic economic lesson
See, this is a problem when an engineer thinks that everybody thinks like an engineer.

You seem to think that the general public even knows how that works. People do NOT check the interest rate before they buy something. People only start getting interested in that sort of thing if they are buying a house, and that's it.

If somebody needs a car, they go out and buy a car. Interest rates aren't even mentioned. Now, if there is a lot of debt with the consumer, they will try to pay off some of their debt, but that still equates to profit to the banks. But, like I said before, most people are complete irresponsible with their money and will blow it on a huge TV, anyway. (Or they will pay off the debt and immediately fill it up again with the TV, thinking that an empty CC is like free money.)

Not to mention that when you're talking about consumption, you want to also consider who benefits from that consumption. Do you want the rich, who already has enough money, to consume and get material items back? Or do you want the poor and middle-class to consume and reap the benefits of getting those material items?

 #127324  by SineSwiper
 
Also, to response to the bill not passing, fuck the public. The public is going to be even more venomous if the bill doesn't pass after the net effects are achieved, and the Republicans REALLY doesn't want that. If that were to happen, we would have a 90% Democratic congress with a Democratic president.

The public doesn't understand this problem enough, so listening to their opinion on this case is probably not a good idea.